Can you believe people were telling you to pick up Austin Hooper for the Week 12 waiver wire? I mean, seriously? The dude put up a goose egg! And now those same people are offering their trash advice for the Week 13 waiver wire. So when will the Jerrys of the world stop wearing Toilet Seats and start winning Rings?
Sure, you can take your victory laps with Dontrell Hilliard, although the whole reason you picked him up was for his receiving upside. He gave you 1.2 points in the air, while most of his other production came on the longest touchdown run allowed by the Patriots in 2021, quadrupling the second-longest. It was an off day for the Patriots as a whole and not something to be expected moving forward.
You got lucky.
As for the three other players I proclaimed were complete garbage, they combined for a whopping nine (!) points. Embarrassing. So I hope you saved your FAAB and waiver wire position by avoiding them. Here are some other players guaranteed to be complete Week 13 waiver wire waste.
Lighting Your FAAB on Fire
It doesn’t make any sense to me. How are people running out and touting Tony Jones? The same Tony Jones who 28-year-old journeyman Ty Montgomery outproduced. Aside from Week 17 in 2020, when the Saints were resting their starters, Montgomery hasn’t played significant snaps at running back since 2018. Yet, it wasn’t relatively close as to who the better running back was on Thursday.
The biggest mistakes throughout the fantasy season lie in who people think are legit handcuffs. Messing around with trash running backs on the Week 13 waiver wire could crush your playoff aspirations. Did you waste all your money on Trey Sermon or maybe Wayne Gallman earlier in the year? In 2020 it was Devonta Freeman behind a terrible offensive line. Who remembers Mike Boone in the fantasy championship against the Packers? Vikings were underdogs, and Boone had two catches in his entire career leading up to Week 16.
Jones is that guy and to waste your FAAB on him is absurd.
Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are both practicing and expected to play. Even if they don’t, you have the Cowboys, who have been solid against running backs. I don’t care if they have been more porous over the past six games. Get out of here with that. Jones is not of the Dalvin Cook and Josh Jacobs caliber which makes up most running backs during the six-game stint. The only one who wasn’t a stud was Gallman, who rushed for 55 yards.
tony jones jr 6 yards at halftime pic.twitter.com/549Jker2vZ— gd (@KeuchelRBW) November 26, 2021
What makes this even more nonsensical is the schedule. Sure the Jets are in there but are you really going to roll out Jones against the Buccaneers, Dolphins, and Panthers in the playoffs?
Didn’t think so.
You’re better off with Chuba Hubbard or Alexander Mattison. If you can’t get them, then aim for Jamaal Williams. Hell, I’d take Jermar Jefferson or Godwin Igwebuike in hopes D’Andre Swift misses a game or two.
Anyone but Jones.
Still Couldn’t Perform, Even in the Best of Situations
The Eagles are on pace to allow 1,214 yards on 120 receptions and 13 touchdowns to the tight end position in 2021. The 318.27 fantasy points would be the most given up to tight ends since the 2013 Cardinals. In Week 12, Evan Engram faced the Eagles totaling three receptions on six targets for 37 yards. Gross.
“But he’s seeing the targets, and if it weren’t for Chris Myarick, he would have had a touchdown!”
The Giants have a total of 13 turnovers on offense this year. Evan Engram has been involved in 5 of them. 4 targets on INT’s out of Jones’ 7 total INT’s & 1 fumble. If you ask me, he has been involved in 6 turnovers this year b/c I count the 3rd down drop in Philly as a turnover. pic.twitter.com/pH7wMok5RU— Justin Penik (@JustinPenik) October 26, 2020
No, if it weren’t for Myarick, the Giants would have kicked a field goal. So let me let you in on a little secret: Engram is not good at football. Since coming into the league in 2017, Engram has never had more touchdowns than he’s had drops and his drop rate has never dipped below 6-percent.
The Giants lack of faith in Engram shows as they only attempted one pass of 20 yards or more in his direction and only targeted him on 8.2-percent of the red zone passing opportunities in 2021. So why are analysts still touting him as a waiver wire pickup when he should be left for dead? Engram faces the Chargers in Week 14 and the Eagles again in Week 16.
Get out of here with that noise.
The Giants haven’t had any healthy receivers all season, and Engram still can’t perform. He’s played on 54 more passing down snaps than Kenny Golladay - who is second on the team - and Golladay still has 99 more receiving yards. And don’t come at me with “Well, Golladay’s Average Depth of Target!”
Typically if a tight end has low ADOT, one of two things is happening: The tight end is used in the red zone like Tyler Higbee and Pat Freiermuth, or they are getting a high Yards per Route Run like Dan Arnold or Zach Ertz due to the volume and Yards After the Catch. As this Giants offense continues to heal, Engram won’t see those coveted targets he tends to do nothing with, so don’t make the mistake and pick him up because of the matchup. You never know when Myarick might vulture another one.
There’s can only be One for the Week 13 Waiver Wire Trash
The wide receivers analysts are recommending for the Week 13 aren’t terrible. Part of it has to do with only the Cheifs and Cardinals on bye for Week 12. Not too many receivers were dropped from those teams who you want to pick up and play against the Broncos or Bears. Maybe Rondale Moore if you’re feeling spicy.
The other part has to do with the lack of receivers on waivers who were successful in Week 12. We didn’t have many outliers like Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Week 11 or Bryan Edwards in Week 10. Week 9, there were four who had their first finishes inside the top 15. Chasing those points likely left you with Participation Ribbons.
It seemed like every week there were at least two or three popping up who had no business staying in the top-end range. Then we had Week 12; Odell Beckham made an appearance, but he’s not on waivers. Desean Jackson is someone who will likely end up here again, but no telling when. Randall Cobb performed, but which receiver with a low ADOT doesn’t against the Rams. The industry stayed pretty level-headed on every receiver except one: Kendrick Bourne.
To chase Bourne and his points is like finding the one person at the party who is fun and attractive, but they are ripping way too many shots to last the whole night. Then, before you know it, you’re dealing with weird looks and judgmental whispers because you were the one with them.
Similar to fantasy, you’re now the one responsible for that person. They are in your starting lineups and giving you a goose egg. Then, as you try to figure out how you can get out of it, you end up covered with vomit and an L in the playoffs. As @DaddysHomeFF talked about in his Not-So-Sexy Week 12 piece, Bourne in Week 12 was a must-start and he helped you get one step closer to the Championship Trophy, but now it’s time to let go.
Over the next four weeks, Bourne has two games against the Bills top-ranked defense, a bye, and one against the Colts, who just shut down the Bucs receivers. Let someone else pick up Bourne. These roster spots are far too valuable to waste as we close in on the playoffs.
Basing the Week 13 Waiver Wire on Volume is Garbage
Volume does not matter if there’s no premium on touches. I need red-zone looks and targets. Carries between the 20s are useless. It also doesn’t help when the backup running back is outproducing the starter in points per opportunity. Rex Burkhead should be nowhere near starting rosters, regardless of the favorable schedule.
As the Texans get closer to the end of the season, expect them to start rolling out David Johnson more often. They don’t have to worry about managing his workload and will likely try to string together a win or two to close out the season. Burkhead’s measly 2.6 yards per carry, 11 targets, and five red-zone attempts will have you stashing him on your bench while never feeling confident. There isn't a better play to trash for the Week 13 waiver wire.
His inability to create big plays in conjunction with the Texans unable to sustain drives makes for a low upside play. However, upside is required as we close in on the playoffs. If you desperately need a back with upside over the next two weeks, Johnson should be the one you’re targeting, not Burkhead. The schedule is set up for him to destroy teams in the receiving game—if he gets the opportunity.
The Colts and Seahawks struggle to contain pass-catching running backs. The Colts 5.83 (No.21) DOCE Score has been steady as they have faced the fifth easiest schedule against pass-catching backs. Yet, they are still allowing eight points per game to the position in the air. The Seahawks 8.85 (No.31) DOCE Score is significantly worse as they just allowed Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic to combine for 24.1 fantasy points in the receiving game.
If you must roster a Texans back, Johnson is the one who could get you closer to a Title Belt but neither is ideal.